The 2050 Global Normative Scenario Background
Although the following may look like three alternative normative scenarios, they are intended to be one scenario with three interdependent themes. Each theme represents a different perspective on how change occurs. Some believe technology is the key force that has made change occur. Others argue that changing consciousness and the human capacity is more fundamental to long-term systemic change. Still others say that political and economic policies create the conditions for changes in both technology and human capacity. The following global normative scenario assumes that all three themes are important to the realization of the normative future of 2050.
The process that created this scenario was initiated two years ago. A more detailed explanation can be found in last year’s State of the Future or at www.millennium-project.org/millennium/scenarios.html. Very simply, Millennium Project participants identified and rated norms that formed the core of the normative scenario. In order of preference, the participants selected the following top four norms around which to form the scenario: environmental sustainability, plenty, global ethics (the identified and accepted), and peace. The others in order of preference were health, freedom, universal education access, equity, preservation of the human species, enlightenment, exciting and meaningful life, self-actualization, longevity, everyone has everything they want, and security.
The body of the normative scenario is composed of the actions to address the Global Challenges. These actions connected the present world to the normative future of 2050 and gave another medium to share the thinking of the Global Lookout Panel. A scenario review panel was formed of long-term normative-oriented participants of the Project to reviewed and improve the draft of the scenario. As this is an ongoing process, your suggestions for improvements are welcome and may help shape next year’s edition. Even though the following normative scenario takes into account many of the world’s pressing problems, it is intended to illustrate very optimistic possibilities for our common future over the next two generations.
A Normative World in 2050
By 2050 the world had finally achieved a global economy that appears to be environmentally sustainable while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life and the majority with a comfortable living. The resulting social stability has created a world in relative peace, exploring possible futures for the second half of the 21st century.
Different explanations have been given for the series of astounding successes achieved by 2050. Some believe that breakthroughs in science and technology were the keys, others that development of the human potential was more fundamental, and still others that political and economic polices made the difference. All three themes were important and mutually reinforcing. Ref : Global Normative Scenario Excerpt from "1999 State of the Future: Challenges We Face at the Millennium"
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